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Breaking News Electoral College Map July 26 2016 TRUMP 283 vs Hillary 201 Toss Up 54

Electoral College Map July 26 2016 TRUMP 283 Hillary 201 Toss Up 54

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Made by http://StatesPoll.com

Based on General Election Match Up Polls.

(TRUMP vs Hillary )

Electoral Map July 26, 2016

TRUMP 283 | Hillary 201 | Toss Up 54

image
References and detail below,
Considering Turnouts, Which State: TRUMP has 2% leads, I classify it as ‘lean to TRUMP’ (when TRUMP is behind, until 4% gap = Swing States.)
Because he has an edge of turnouts for sure.
Plus, if Current poll is skewed too much. I also considered of that factor.
TRUMP already proved it GOP Primary&Caucus.(Especially in Swing States. (Avg poll numbers from Real Clear Politics.)
NH Primary. (avg 31% on the Polls -> Primary Day 35.3% +4.3%)
NV Caucus. (avg 42% on the Polls -> Caucus Day 45.9% +.39%)
Florida Primary. ( avg 43.0% on the Polls -> Primary Day 45.8% +2.8%)
Pennsylvania. ( avg 48.3% on the Polls -> Primary Day 58.1% +9.8%)

1. Toss Up Swing States : Total 54 Electoral Votes

1) Colorado(9 Electoral votes): Latest Poll

(1) Gravis (July 7-8th, 2016 ) 1313 LV

Current Colorado Polling


Hillary 39% | TRUMP 38% | Johnson 9% | Stein 4%
(This Poll overweighted DEM +3.5%, Underweighted REP -3%)
My Conversion is
My Analysis Post: http://Statespoll.com/post/147396000930
TRUMP 40% | Hillary 37% | Johnson 9% | Stein 4%
(2) Fox(July 9-12th, 2016 ) 600 RV
Hillary 37% | TRUMP 28% | Johnson 13% | Stein 6%
My Conversion: Hillary 33.5% | TRUMP 28.9% | Johnson 14.5% | Stein 6.6%
My Conversion Post: http://statespoll.com/post/147374974470
(3) Monmouth(July 9-12th, 2016 ) 404 LV
Hillary 48% | TRUMP 35% | Johnson 5% | Stein 3%
http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_CO_071316/
(4) Harper® (July 7-9th, 2016 ) 500 LV
Hillary 45% | TRUMP 38% |
http://harperpolling.com/polls/colorado-general-election-poll

2) Connecticut(7 Electoral votes)

(1) Harper(7/5-7/6, 2016) 600 LV
TRRUMP 43% | Hillary 43%
http://www.newsmax.com/John-Gizzi/trump-hillary-clinton-poll/2016/07/17/id/739056/

3) Iowa (6 Electoral votes)

(1) Iowa: TRUMP vs Hillary Clinton vs Johnson vs Stein (YouGov 7/13-7/15, 998 LV)
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/7gcuxp09db/ForRelease_IA_20160717.pdf
TRUMP 40% | Hillary Clinton 39% | Johnson 3%| Stein 2%
My Conversion: TRUMP 40.9% | Hillary 37.7% | Johnson 3.4% | Stein 2.7%
My Analysis Post: http://statespoll.com/post/147544766235
(2) Monmouth(July 8-11th, 2016 ) 401 LV
TRUMP 44% | Hillary 42% | Johnson 6% | Stein 1%
http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_IA_071216/
(3) Gravis(July 7-8th) 1318 RV
Hillary 39% | TRUMP 37% | Johnson 8%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Gravis_IA_July_2016.pdf

4) Maine Statewide (2 Electoral votes)

Morning Consult(April-June,2016) Maine. TRUMP 40.8% | Hillary 38.8%
https://morningconsult.com/trump-vs-clinton-conventions-electoral-college-map/
4-2) Maine 2nd District (1 Electoral votes)

Maine 2nd district: TRUMP beat Hillary, Portland Press Herald/Maine Sunday Telegram 6/15-6/21. 222 LV

TRUMP 37% | Hillary 36%
http://statespoll.com/post/146482681535

5) Michigan: 16 Electoral votes

(1) CBS/YouGov (7/13-7/15, 2016) 998 LV
Hillary 42% | TRUMP 39% | Johnson 5% | Stein 2%
https://www.scribd.com/document/318501486/CBS-News-2016-Battleground-Tracker-Michigan-July-2016#from_embed
(2) Gravis (7/7-7/8, 2016) 1562 LV
Hillary 37% | TRUMP 34% | Johnson 2% | Stein 1%

Current Michigan Polling


My Conversion: Hillary 36% | TRUMP 35% | Johnson 2% | Stein 1%
My Analysis Post: http://Statespoll.com/post/147395690700

6) Virginia: 13 Electoral votes

(1) Virginia: Hampton University, 7/6-7/10, 805 LV
TRUMP 39.2%| Hillary 38.8%
http://news.hamptonu.edu/release/HU-Poll%3A-Presidential-Candidates-in-a-Statistical-Dead-Heat-among-Virginians
(2) Fox 7/9-7/12, 601 RV
Results: Hillary 39% | TRUMP 34% | Johnson 10% | Stein 4% (Page 7)
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/07/13/fox-news-poll-71316-clinton-tops-trump-by-7-points-in-virginia/
My Conversion: TRUMP 37.2% | Hillary 35.7% | Johnson 11.2% | Stein 4.1%
My Conversion Post: http://statespoll.com/post/147374107520

1-2. Hold

1) Oregon(7 Electoral votes)

(1) TRUMP vs Hillary: Icitizen, 6/23-6/27, 555 RV
(This poll sampling is very suspicious, anyway until the next polls, I classify Oregon for Blue state)
http://statespoll.com/post/147278546405/oregon-trump-vs-hillary-clinton-icitizen
(2) Clout Research (5/10-5/13) TRUMP 44% | Hillary 42% (657 LV)
http://cloutpolitical.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/31/2016/05/OR-Statewide-Poll-Memorandum-5-18-2016.pdf
1-3. Swing States which are lean to TRUMP : Total 92 Electoral votes

1) Florida(29 Electoral votes): Latest Poll

(1) Quinnipaic(6/30-7/11, 2016 ) 1015 RV
TRUMP 41% | Hillary 36% | Johnson 7% | Stein 3%
https://www.qu.edu/images/polling/ps/ps05102016_Sw4b42d.pdf
(2) JMC Analytics (7/9-7/10, 2016 ) 700 LV
TRUMP 47% | Hillary 42% | Johnson 2% | Stein 1%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/JMC_Analytics_FL_July_2016.pdf
2) Nevada (6 Electoral votes)

(1) Rasmussen (July 7-10th, 2016 ) 401 LV
TRUMP 43% | Hillary 38% | Johnson 8%
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1r40YV2vK7ceUDi19oZKuMKZTWWGRcN6kgiXqWIQFyss/edit#gid=0

3) New Hampshire: (4 Electoral votes)

InsideSources/NH Journal Poll 7/19-7/21 1166 RV.
TRUMP 47.9% | Hillary 38.5%

Ayotte Leads Hassan in InsideSources/NH Journal Poll

4) North Carolina (15 Electoral votes): Latest Poll

* Despite of dead heat polls, kinda pro-Hillary 538(Nate Silver) says TRUMP’s chance of winning in NC=61.1%. So I marked it as Red State.(Turnouts factors, etc)
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/north-carolina/#plus
(1) CBS/YouGov 6/21-6/24, 982 LV
Hillary 44% | TRUMP 42% | Johnson 2% | Stein 1%

(2) Civitas 6/21-6/23. 600 LV
Hillary 42% | TRUMP 40% | Johnson 6% |
My Analysis(Details): http://statespoll.com/post/146685716660
(3) PPP (6/20-6/21, 2016). 947 RV
TRUMP 43% | Hillary 43% | Johnson 4% | Stein 2%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_62316.pdf

5) Ohio (18 Electoral votes)

PPP(7/22-7/24, 2016 ) 1334 RV
TRUMP 42% | Hillary 39% | Johnson 6% | Stein 2%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_OH_72516.pdf

6) Pennsylvania (20 Electoral votes)

Quinnipaic(6/30-7/11, 2016 ) 982 RV
TRUMP 40% | Hillary 34% | Johnson 9% | Stein 3%
https://www.qu.edu/images/polling/ps/spa07132016_crosstabs_Smba72th.pdf
* I didn’t include WSJ/Marist 7/5-7/10 PA poll.
1) They were wrong during republican primary
2) That poll doesn’t even show sampling info much.
(age/party id/race).

1-3. Swing States which are lean to Hillary : Total 20 Electoral votes

1) Minnesota (10 Electoral votes)

Star Tribune (4/25-4/27, 2016) TRUMP 35% | Hillary 48% (800 LV)
http://www.startribune.com/clinton-leads-trump-in-star-tribune-minnesota-poll/377701361/

2) Wisconsin: 10 Electoral votes

(1) Marquette, July 7-10th, 665 LV https://law.marquette.edu/poll/
Hillary 43% | TRUMP 37% | Johnson 8% | Stein 2%
(2) PPP, 6/22-6/23, 843 RV
http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/WisconsinResults616.pdf
Hillary 47% | TRUMP 39%

2. Basic Red States for TRUMP: 164 Electoral Votes

Alabama(9),Alaska(3), Arkansas(6), Wyoming(3)
Idaho(4), Indiana(11),Kansas(6),Kentucky(8),Louisiana(8),West Virginia(5)
Mississippi(6) Missouri(10),Montana(3),Nebraska(4),South Carolina(9) Texas(38)NorthDakota(3),Oklahoma(7),SouthDakota(3),Tennessee(11),Utah(6)

2-2. Kinda Red States which are lean to TRUMP : 27 Electoral Votes

1) Arizona: 11 Electoral votes

PPP, 6/22-6/23, 691 RV. TRUMP 44% | Hillary 40% | Not Sure 16%
http://aufc.3cdn.net/7df2e97a499c038248_9qm6bxwgr.pdf

2) Georgia: 16 Electoral votes

Landmark Communication / WSB-TV. 7/24 500 LV
TRUMP 46% | Hillary 44% | Johnson 5% | Stein 3%

Landmark/Rosetta Stone Releases Latest Georgia Presidential Poll


My Conversion: TRUMP 47.4% | Hillary 41.5% | Johnson 5.5% | Stein 2.8% |
TRUMP 47.4% | Hillary Clinton 41.5% | Johnson 5.5% | Stein 2.8%

3. Basic Blue States for Hillary: 143 Electoral Votes

California(55),Delaware(3),DC(3),Hawaii(4),Illinois(20)
Maine-CD1(1),Maryland(10),Massachusettes(11),
New York(29),Rhode Island(4),Vermont(3)

3-2. Kinda Blue States which are lean to Hillary : 31 Electoral Votes

1) New Mexico(5 Electoral votes)

PPP (5/13-5/15, 2016) TRUMP 33% | Hillary 41% (802 LV)

Clinton leads in NM in three-way race


2) New Jersey(14 Electoral votes)

Fairleigh Dickinson (6/22-6/26,2016) 712 RV
Hillary 52% | TRUMP 31%
http://view2.fdu.edu/publicmind/2016/160629/
3) Washington(12 Electoral votes)

August 15, 2016

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Johnnie R. Maul


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